LA Rams projected to win NFC West by NFL’s Cynthia Frelund

Okay, the schedule is out, (or almost out) and now everyone wants to know what the NFL standings will look like by the end of the 2022 NFL season. Well, we may have an answer, albeit from NFL.com’s data-analytics guru Cynthia Frelund.  As part of her NFL.com roles, she has analyzed what is known about NFL teams, run that information through a win/loss algorithm, and determined projected wins totals for all 32 NFL teams. It’s her Way-too-early-win-total projection video, and it’s up at NFL.com right now.

The ability to forecast the entire 32 NFL team final records is not one to be taken lightly.  While some believe that it’s just a matter of tweaking wins and losses from last year’s standings, the actual mechanics require reviewing each team’s opponents and then landing at a balance of 32 teams whose cumulative wins equals cumulative loses for a 17 game schedule. It’s not as easy as it may sound.

So what does the NFC West look like for 2022? Still rather competitive, it seems.

NFC West Standings

LA Rams                      – 11.5 wins
San Francisco 49ers –   9.6 wins
Arizona Cardinals      –    9.1 wins
Seattle Seahawks      –   5.6 wins

That all seems safe enough. The LA Rams won 12 games in 2021. The Cardinals won 11 games last year, the 49ers won 10 games, while the Seahawks brought up the rear with just seven wins. But how many NFC West teams make the playoffs?  To know that answer, we need to project the rest of the NFC.  Of course, since she has calculated the entire NFL win totals, here are the standings of other NFL Divisions

NFC South Standings *

Tampa Bay Buccaneers  – 11.7 wins (top seed)
New Orleans Saints  –           7.9 wins
Atlanta Falcons         –            5.4 wins
Carolina Panthers    –            5.0 wins

NFC North Standings

Green Bay Packers        –    10.9 wins
Minnesota Vikings        –        8.7 wins
Detroit Lions                   –       7.4 wins
Chicago Bears                 –       6.1 wins

NFC East Standings

Philadelphia Eagles         –       9.2 wins
Dallas Cowboys               –        9.2 wins
Washington Commanders –  7.7 wins
New York Giants                   –   6.8 wins

* denotes teams that the LA Rams will face this year.

NFC Division winners work out to be the Rams (2nd seed), Bucs (1st seed), Packers (3rd seed), and either the Eagles or the Cowboys (4th seed).

NFC Wild Card teams will be the 49ers (5th seed),  either the Eagles or the Cowboys (6th seed), and the Cardinals (7th seed).

AFC Standings

Since we’ve already covered half the NFL, why not finish it off. So that’s just what we’ll do, starting with the AFC West Division

AFC West Standings *

Kansas City Chiefs              –  10.4 wins
LA Chargers                          –  10.2 wins
Denver Broncos                  –     9.8 wins
Las Vegas Raiders              –     9.7 wins

AFC South Standings

Indianapolis Colts               –     9.9 wins
Tenessee Titans                  –     8.8 wins
Jacksonville Jaguars           –     6.3 wins
Houston Texans                  –     4.3 wins

AFC North Standings

Baltimore Ravens               –     9.0 wins
Cincinnati Bengals              –     8.9 wins
Cleveland Browns               –     8.8 wins
Pittsburgh Steelers            –     7.8 wins

AFC South Standings

Buffalo Bills                           –  11.6 wins (top seed)
Miami Dolphins                    –     8.8 wins
New England Patriots        –     8.7 wins
New York Jets                       –     7.2 wins

* denotes teams that the LA Rams will face this year.

AFC Division winners: Bills (top seed), Chiefs (2nd seed), Colts (3rd seed), Ravens (4th seed)
AFC Wild Card teams: Chargers (5th seed), Broncos (6th seed), Raiders (7th seed)

The numbers appear about right. The West is best, as the NFC West sends three teams to the NFL Playoffs, while the AFC West makes it a clean sweep by sending everyone to the NFL Playoffs. Curiously, the Cincinnati Bengals, the Cinderella story from the NFL Playoffs last year, are not projected to compete in the playoffs this year.