Don’t bet against LA Rams as home ‘dogs, you’ll be sorry

The LA Rams are a very successful team, and as we have just pointed out, are on a five-game winning streak on season openers. That type of success does not often get overlooked or ignored by oddsmakers. But occasionally, it happens, and all we can do is examine the occasions when that happened, what was the background of that contest, and how did it play out.

The Rams have been a brand new team since hiring head coach Sean McVay. Over the past two seasons (chosen because that is as far back as my odds data goes), the Rams have won 22 games and lost 11 games. In the postseason, the Rams have been even better, as the team has piled up a 5-1 record over that period.

But when it comes to betting odds, a team’s chances of winning are factored in. That is, over the course of an NFL season, odds are set so that a team covers the spread as often as it fails to cover the spread. To an NFL gambler, a team can lose most of its games. But if that team can keep the score close, the team can end up the season covering the spread more often than not.

Of course, that is no consolation to a team that is eliminated from NFL Playoffs by Thanksgiving Day, but it does illustrate how odds and spreads impact the way gamblers view the NFL. Now, what about the LA Rams?

2020 Rams schedule

For game details, here is the 2020 NFL Schedule for the LA Rams with odds for that game:

Week 1 – +2.5 hosting Dallas Cowboys –        Win 20-17  *
Week 2 – +3.5 at Philadelphia Eagles –            Win 30-19
Week 3 – +3.0 at Buffalo Bills –                          Lost 35-32
Week 4 – -9.0 hosting New York Giants –         Win 17-  9
Week 5 – -9.5 at Washington Football Team – Win 30-10
Week 6 – +3.0 at San Francisco 49ers –            Lost 24-16
Week 7 – -7.0 hosting Chicago Bears –              Win 24-10
Week 8 – -3.5 at Miami Dolphins –                     Lost 28-17
Week 9 – BYE
Week 10 – -2.0 hosting Seattle Seahawks –     Win 23-16
Week 11 – +3.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers –     Win 27-24
Week 12 – -7.0 host      San Francisco 49ers – Lost 23-20
Week 13 – +1.0 at Arizona Cardinals –                 Win 38-28
Week 14- -6.5 host New England Patriots     – Win 24-10
Week 15 – -16.5 hosting New York Jets –          Lost 23-20
Week 16 – +2.0 at Seattle Seahawks –              Lost 20-  9
Week 17 – +1.0 hosting Arizona Cardinals –     Win 18-  9 *

Okay, but what about 2021?

2021 Rams schedule

For game details, here is the 2021 NFL Schedule for the LA Rams with odds for that game:

Week 1 – -7.5 hosting Chicago Bears –                   Win 34-14
Week 2 – -4.5 at Indianapolis Colts –                       Win 27-24
Week 3 – -1.0 hosting Tampa Bay Buccaneers –  Win 34-24
Week 4 – -5.0 hosting Arizona Cardinals –             Lose 37-  20
Week 5 – -1.0 at Seattle Seahawks –                      Win 26-17
Week 6 – -11.0 at New York Giants –                      Win 38-11
Week 7 – -15.5 hosting Detroit Lions –                   Win 28-19
Week 8 – -14.5 at Houston Texans –                       Win 38-22
Week 9 – -7.5 hosting Tennessee Titans-              Lose 28-16
Week 10 – -4.0 at  San Francisco 49ers –              Lose 31-10
Week 11 – BYE WEEK
Week 12 – +1.0 at Green Bay Packers –                 Lose 36-28
Week 13 – -13.5 hosting Jacksonville Jaguars –   Win 37-7
Week 14- +3.0 at Arizona Cardinals     –                 Win 30-23
Week 15 – -4.5 hosting Seattle Seahawks –         Win 20-10
Week 16 – -3.0 at Minnesota Vikings –                   Win 30-23
Week 17 – -3.5 at Baltimore Ravens –                    Win 20- 19
Week 18 – -5.0 hosting San Francisco 49ers –     Lose 27-24 OT

* Denotes games where the LA Rams were home underdogs.

Looking at the data above, the LA Rams were underdogs in 10 of 33 games over the past two seasons. Of those games, the Rams were home underdogs twice, and road underdogs eight times. So how did those games play out?

In eight road underdog contests, the Rams failed to cover the spread three times, tied the spread once, and not only covered the spread but outright won the game four times. That is a pretty good track record. But in the two games when the LA Rams were home underdogs, they won both contests. That includes defeating a highly touted Dallas Cowboys team to open the 2020 NFL season, as well as a shorthanded victory over the Arizona Cardinals.

So let the oddsmakers set the Rams up as the home underdogs once more. We know how it will play out. When the Rams are underdogs, at home or on the road, the team has a 60 percent chance of winning the game outright.  If the Rams are playing at SoFi Stadium as the underdog, the LA Rams don’t lose.

Will history mandate the future? Perhaps not. But in the uncertainty of tomorrow, don’t the past performances of the LA Rams make sense? Odds are, they do.