Getting LA Rams QB Matthew Stafford on track is . . . well, complicated.

Gunslinger mindset

But there is more to it. You see, this is a complicated matter. And as such, the factors that are leading to Stafford’s decision-making process are complex as well. Why not just throw it away? Why just take off and surrender with a slide?

The reason that won’t work is the simple fact that Stafford has been blessed/cursed with the gunslinger mentality. Much like former quarterback Bret Favre, Stafford is extremely confident in his ability to complete forward passes, so much so that he takes chances that other quarterbacks do not. And that willingness to throw to receivers who are covered can lead to turnovers.

The turnover tendency is not a recent affliction

Matthew Stafford is throwing more interceptions than ever.

With more pressure on Stafford, he is more willing to throw the pass into questionable conditions. Does that stand up to the data? Not according to Next Gen Stats, which tracks NFL quarterbacks’ tendency to throw into tight coverages. Stafford is the least likely to do so in 2022, a surprising fact considering the number of interceptions he’s thrown this year.

What of 2021? More of the same. Stafford is one of the least aggressive quarterbacks in the NFL when choosing to throw into tight coverage. So there must be another factor at play. What might that be?