LA Rams Baker burned the Lions and 3 other teams of draft day value

The LA Rams were less than two minutes from losing to the Las Vegas Raiders. They had the football, sure. But the team needed to go 98 yards, and newly arrived quarterback Baker Mayfield had every excuse in the world to fail. He was a quarterback that couldn’t cut it with two other NFL teams. He had just arrived at the LA Rams hours earlier. Nobody could be expected to learn the LA Rams’ complex offense in a week’s time, let alone in hours.

But most of all, he had already orchestrated a touchdown drive that had consumed 9+ minutes off the game clock. Mayfield had proven his ability to pilot this offense. He was simply ill-equipped to do so with no time and all the pressure in the world.

And yet, we know what happened. The hours-old quarterback found LA Rams wide receiver Van Jefferson in the endzone for the game-tying touchdown, setting up place kicker Matt Gay to boot the game-winning extra point to elevate the Rams to 4-9 and stave off the mathematical elimination that would have come crashing down on the team if it had fallen to 3-10.

Baker burnt four LA Rams trade partners on draft day

Ah, but let’s not be selfish. The Rams’ victory not only cost the Las Vegas Raiders an all-but-certain victory in front of a national audience. But it doesn’t end there. You see, the LA Rams were quite active over the past several years in terms of trading draft picks for players. And the bill for those players has not yet been fully paid. The Rams draft will be without a first-round pick, sent to the Detroit Lions for QB Matthew Stafford.

The Rams will send their fourth-round pick to the New England Patriots, as the final payment for RB Sony Michel. The Rams’ fifth-round pick goes to the Cleveland Browns for DB Troy Hill. Finally, the Rams’ seventh-round pick goes to the Green Bay Packers, a refund for the Packers for trading their sixth-round pick to the Rams for punter Corey Bojorquez.

With the Rams winning, the value of each LA Rams draft pick immediately depreciated in value. How much? To help, I’ve created a table below (which does NOT take into account any compensatory picks awards):

• Team                               Rd pick       Before      Now       Lost value     Pick equivalentDetroit Lions                   1st                3rd              5th          (-500)             2nd roundNE Patriots                      4th              98th        100th         ( –   8)               7th roundCleveland Browns          5th            130th        132nd        ( –   2)              7th roundGB Packers                      7th             194th        196th        ( -0.8)              7th round

As you can see, three of the teams had lost the equivalent value of a seventh-round pick, which in all reality is not a huge loss. But the loss of value to the Detroit Lions, from the third-overall to the fifth-overall pick is a huge difference, some 500 value points, which works out to a high second-round pick.

What that means is that, if the Lions would be committed to trading from their current projected fifth-overall pick to the third overall pick, it would likely cost them their second-round pick, or the 42nd overall pick in the draft, to do so.

What of the LA Rams draft picks that remain with the Rams? Well, those devalued too. But the Rams are happy to lose draft day value to win, and in the process learn a great deal about the competitiveness of the young players on the roster.