David Lombardi's hard facts disputes Matthew Stafford's salary demands

When it comes to the Los Angeles Rams and the need to rework Matthew Stafford's contract to have any hope of the veteran quarterback stepping onto a football field, there are several ways fans react. There is an enclave that willingly sides with the player, citing the need to 'pay the man,' regardless of repercussions or how that contract might impact the team's finances. There is another group of fans who point to the fact that Matthew Stafford signed a contract to play on these terms with the team through the 2026 NFL season and hold him accountable to make good on that commitment.

Then there are those fans who reserve judgment, awaiting more information. Well, thanks to Good Morning Football host Peter Schrager, we have a significant update. Matthew Stafford wants $50+ million to suit up and play for the Rams in 2025. While the Rams are currently hit for nearly $50 million against their salary cap, fresh money in 2024 is limited to a $4 million roster bonus plus his $23 million salary. Stafford is looking for the team to essentially double that.

Just to keep this all In perspective, the LA Rams have 19 projected free agents hitting the 2025 NFL Free Agency market. If the Rams resist Stafford's salary demands, they could use that money to extend other players. For example:

• LT Alaric Jackson - APY $14.3 million, $10 million cap hit 2025 (3-year, $45 Million, $21 million signing bonus)
• NT Bobby Brown - APY $2.3 million, $1.5 million cap hit 2025,(3-year $8 million, $3 million signing bonus)
• WR Tutu Atwell - APY $3 million, $2 million cap hit 2025 (3-year $10 million, $3 million signing bonus
• QB Jimmy Garoppolo - APY $6 million, $5 million cap hit 2025 (3-year $18 million, $6 million signing bonus)
• OLB Michael Hoecht - APY $6 million, $5 million cap hit 2025 (3-year $19 million, $6 million signing bonus

I'm not suggesting remotely that I have contacted players, the team, or agents to determine what it might cost to extend the aforementioned players. I'm simply conducting an exercise that demonstrates how the NFL salary cap works, and how a decision to pay Matthew Stafford whatever he demands can have a huge impact on other players who could be signed with that money. Ultimately, the team can only spend it once. So it's either Stafford or other players who the team wants back.

What's that worth to you?

While he is a San Francisco 49ers fan, Dave Lombardi does create a solid bit of video evidence that explains why the Rams front office is wise to hesitate simply ponying up to Matthew Stafford's salary demands of $50+ million for 2025. In essence, Stafford has not exactly shown the level of production that warrants a Top-5 quarterbacks salary.

But to properly assess the video, ignore the fact that the author created this content to argue why 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is worth a huge contract in 2025. That is not where the value is to the LA Rams football organization. Pay attention to where Stafford has ranked in terms of onfield production and then we will reconvene:

The value of that video is merely to reflect how Matthew Stafford's production in the Rams offense has not met the fact that the team has compensated him among the NFL's Top-6 quarterbacks. And that is why this financial dispute has grown to the impasse that it has:

Had Stafford approached the team seeking to guarantee his current contract, the team may have agreed to those terms. But it's almost impossible to justify giving the starting quarterback from the most expensive but 20th-ranked scoring offense a huge increase in salary, when his contract is already signed and valid over the next two season.

The Rams have a lot of issues that must be addressed. I fear Stafford's resolve may force the team to trade him and start the next chapter in 2025. Will it all come to that? I certainly hope not, but I recommend being prepared for anything at this point.

It comes down to this. The Rams have taken a more discerning look at paying for what the team gets, and that appears to project Matthew Stafford's productivity regressing even further in 2025. Yes, the two sides can still manage to find common ground, but that means that both sides must see value in compromise.

You get what you pay for is not always true in the NFL. Sometimes an NFL team overpays for a player. Sometimes the player outperforms their contract. I could be wrong, but I have the perception that the Rams will give market adjustments to players who outperform their extisting contracts. Where that logic falls short is that I do not believe that Stafford has outperformed his deal with the Rams. From the statistical evidence I have reviewed, the opposite is true.

Which now forces the team to address the true elephant in the quarterback room:

At some point, the team has to do a far better job at generating a succession plan at quarterback. If they do not address the issue in 2025, then when? And it may be the very need to find a successor for Matthew Stafford that forces the team to take a harder line on renegotiating Stafford's contract.

That would truly be ironic,. don't you think? A little too ironic? Yeah, I really do think.

As always, thanks for reading.

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