Did the Rams get a deal on veteran safety Quentin Lake's extension?

Just weeks after locking up linebacker Nate Landman to a three-year, $22.5 million deal, the Los Angeles Rams have made another three-year commitment to a member of their defense. This time, LA has agreed to terms with safety Quentin Lake for a total of $42 million. The deal's reported $13 million APY would tie him with Broncos safety Talanoa Hufanga for the 13th-highest paid player at his position.

Lake is in a unique position, signing a contract while currently on injured reserve with an elbow injury that has kept him out of action since week 11. Normally, missed time would signal a negative effect on a player's contract valuation, but this looks like a one-off that is unlikely to cause long-term issues.

As such, I decided to project Lake's production this season over a 17-game sample and throw it into my projection and comp contract systems to see what, if any, value the Rams got on the deal. Or, conversely, did Lake do well for himself?

Projection Outputs

Using that extrapolation, his APY estimate focused on his 2023-2025 production is $8.39 million. Across 2024-2025, it is $8.65 million, and looking at just his 2025 would put his estimate at $11.6 million. Considering he didn't become a full-time starter until 2024, the 20-year and platform year projections are much more instructive than the three-year projection.

Looking for comps for both his two-year and platform year production elicits the following names:

With such a wide margin of contractual comparisons (comps), I find it instructive to look for the average of the group. That average is $13.4 million. Factor in the 2-year and platform year projection data points, and the overall average comes to $12.58 million.

This shows the deal is a strong one for Lake. But when you consider the guaranteed aspect and use the Landman deal as a leading barometer, it shows the Rams have his true value a bit lower and closer to that $12.58 million projection.

Little New Money Paid Out This Year

Landman's deal gave him a $500k bump in pay this year. If the Rams do the same with Lake, that leaves about $25 million in guarantees, likely spread over 2026 and 2027. That would come to $12.5 million per year, right at the average of these data points. That would leave a balloon payment of $17.5 million in 2028.

Ultimately, despite not having a strongly defined comp, using a range of deals shows that Lake's contract is a fair one.