Will the Rams respond effectively to Week 11 injuries?
At 4-5, the team cannot enter any game with a presumption of success. Right now, even a winless team poses a real threat if they appeared on the Rams schedule. It's not that this roster is bereft of talent. Much of the time, it is simply due to the fact that the coaches seldom modify their game plan based on each week's unique set of circumstances.
Let's revisit the Rams' use of 12-personnel as an example. Per Lineups.com, we can identify those games in which the Rams deployed two tight ends at a rate higher than their season average. The two tight ends in this offense occured:
- Week 1 - 0% | Alaric Jackson Jackson/Rob Havenstein injured
- Week 2 - 0% | Alaric Jackson injured
- Week 3 - 45% (Win)
- Week 4 - 8%
- Week 5 - 5%
- Week 6 - BYE
- Week 7 - 15% (Win)
- Week 8 - 45% (Win)
- Week 9 - 31% (Win)
- Week 10 - 9% | Rob Havenstein injured
If you look at the data table above, the part that jumps off the page is the reality that when the team plays backups at offensive tackle, the coaches opt to shed 12-personnel. Is that tactic fooling anyone? Or does it merely complicate the task offensive tackles who are thrust into starting roles, only to find themselves left on an island.
Notice the pattern of wins versus losses above. The Rams have won every game in which they deploy two tight ends at least 15 percent of the time. The thing is, the offense is built for more tight-end work. After all, WR Tutu Atwell is perfectly suited to test the deep coverage of NFL secondaries. So having him on the field with two tight ends yields multiple benefits for the Rams roster, including:
- Penalizes defenses that opt to load up the box with eight defenders
- Penalize defenses that opt to stick with seven defenders in the box (by running the football)
- GIves the team a natural situation to sit either Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua, easing their workload.
- Allows the offense to consume more game clock, resting the defense and keeping them fresh
- Punishes defense with body blows that softens it up for big gains later in the game
The Rams have not won a single game without a higher-than-average use of 12-personnel. I think the evidence is obvious. So why won't the Rams use two tight ends more often? I think it's a bit like smoking. Bad habits are just hard to break.