Let's revisit the best draft 'hit' rates facing the Rams in the 2025 NFL Draft

As we pivot to the 2025 NFL Draft, there is always the annual debate over how the team will strategize their draft picks. Will the Los Angeles Rams focus on drafting positions of need, or simply draft the best player available (BPA)? If the team drafts exclusively for need, it runs the risk of choosing a player who is not worth the investment when that player is selected. But if the team drafts the best player available, the risk is to have too many players in the same position.

Neither scenario is an optimal solution for restocking a roster during the annual NFL Draft.

But what if I were to suggest that there is a third variable that could play a major role in which position the team chooses, and when, in the upcoming draft? What if the team were to base which player is selected in which round based on the historic chances of success at choosing a player at a specific position? We raised that in our LA Rams draft needs, hit rates, and when should Rams pick a QB? in November 2023. At the time, we were investigating when the Rams might draft a quarterback.

The issue of when the Rams should address which positional need in which round of the 2025 NFL Draft seems to be even more relevant in this draft. With limited elite talent, robust quantities of NFL-starter caliber prospects, and a Rams roster that is still not quite 'there' yet in terms of kickoff-capability, the 2025 NFL Draft seems to require much more choreography than usual.

What I mean is that to get an optimal yield from the draft, and anticipated which positions can effectively be addressed on Days 2 and 3, the Rams front office seems to have its work cut out for itself this year. Why do I suggest that?

You can make a valid argument for the Rams to select an OT, TE, WR, QB, LB, CB, or DL in Round 1 of the 2025 NFL Draft. But whichever position is selected early, will sufficient numbers and level of talent worthy of selection still be on the board in later rounds? I ran into that problem in a recent mock draft, in which both PSU TE Tyler Warren and Michigan TE Colston Loveland were selected before the Rams stepped up to the podium with the 26th overall pick.

The thing is, the front office will try to select players before the level of talent drops. Simultaneously, the team will try to optimize chances of success in the draft.

In that hit rates article, we explored the success of finding success at various positions in each round of the NFL Draft. Just as a refresher, those historic hit rates are:

• QB | Rd 1 (63%) } Rd 2 (27%) | Rd 3 (17%) | Rd 4 or later (8%)
• RB | Rd 1 (58%) | Rd 2 (25%) | Rd 3 (16%) | Rd 4 or later (11%)
• OL | Rd 1 (83%) | Rd 2 (70%) | Rd 3 (40%) | Rd 4 or later (29%)
• TE | Rd 1 (67%) | Rd 2 (50%) | Rd 3 (39%) | Rd 4 or later (33%)
• WR | Rd 1 (58%) | Rd 2 (49%) | Rd 3 (25%) | Rd 4 or later (12%)
• DL | Rd 1 (58%) | Rd 2 (26%) | Rd 3 (27%) | Rd 4 or later (37%)
• LB | Rd 1 (70%) | Rd 2 (55%) | Rd 3 (34%) | Rd 4 or later (16%)
• DB | Rd 1 (64%) | Rd 2 (46%) | Rd 3 (24%) | Rd 4 or later (11%)

*bold italics highlight optimal round to select that position.

As you can see from the table above, the best Day 3 positions to shop for include offensive line, defensive line, and tight ends. The best Day 2 positions to shop for include offensive line, tight end, linebacker, wide receiver, and defensive back. The best position to address on Day 1 (based on rapid drop off) include quarterback and running back.

Of course, the measure of success is finding a starter. The Rams may not be shopping for plug-and-play starters with each draft selection. But this introduces a new variable into the Rams draft strategy. To be fair, the Rams found a record-setting WR In Round 5, a feature RB in Round 5, and a starting center in Round 6 of recent NFL Drafts. So this is a team that has been known to beat the odds before.

As always, thank you for reading.

Here are recent Rams articles that you may enjoy