Matthew Berry’s early 2026 fantasy football rankings spark Matthew Stafford debate

The fantasy football community tried to write Los Angeles Rams star quarterback Matthew Stafford off last offseason — then he won the 2025 NFL MVP. Yet, that isn't stopping members of the industry, such as Matthew Berry of NBC Sports, from potentially falling into the same trap again.

Berry dropped his "way too early" rankings for 2026, which are "intended for 1 QB re-draft leagues with full [point-per-reception] scoring." And as of March 26, Stafford checks in as the QB16. That feels quite low for someone we all watched torch opposing defenses en route to finishing third in points per game at their position.

It's hard to expect reigning Stafford, who turned 38 in February, to run as hot as he did for a second straight campaign. So, baking in some regression isn't off base. However, the drop-off shouldn't be as steep as Berry suggests.

Matthew Berry's early 2026 fantasy football rankings sell Rams star QB Matthew Stafford short

Of course, dual-threat signal-callers have become the name of the game, and understandably so. Be that as it may, styles make fights. Stafford shouldn't be penalized for being one of the few true pocket passers left nowadays, let alone falling into QB2 territory, which the numbers support.

Stafford was so dominant this past season that he can afford to take a step back and still be a fantasy QB1. The future Hall of Famer can even remain a high-end option. Just look at how some of his dazzling stats compare to the 59 other players with at least 40 dropbacks:

• Ninth in fantasy points per dropback (0.58)
• First in end-zone passing attempts (52)
• Fifth in hero throw percentage (6.7 percent)
• First in deep throws (81)
• First in air yards (5,277)
• Third in passer rating (109.2)
• First in passing first downs (236)
• First in passing touchdowns (46)

Conversely, as crazy as it sounds, there's a solid case to be made that Stafford left meat on the bone last year. He was tied for the fourth-most dropped air yards (287). Moreover, his 76.2 percent catchable-ball rate and 56.1 percent highly accurate throw rate were 23rd and 33rd, respectively.

The Rams leaned on Stafford's arm, and it's easy to see why. His remarkable throwing skills make him arguably the premier vertical passer and ultimate red-zone weapon. He can put the ball into any window and has an elite supporting cast to boot; none of this has changed.

Los Angeles' outstanding wide receiver duo of Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, plus its elite offensive line, remains. Their head coach, Sean McVay, has a legitimate claim as the best play-caller out there. They have a dynamic rushing attack spearheaded by standout running back Kyren Williams, so Stafford is set up to be a massive bargain again.

Note: Stats courtesy of Fantasy Points' data suite ($).