More data correlates LA Rams uncanny 3-year cycle to compete in SB LIX

The LA Rams have fought their way back into the NFL Playoffs for the second consecutive season. That is quite a feat unto itself, as oftentimes there is a bit of churning of teams that are unable to return to postseason competition. This year, teams that failed to return to the NFL postseason include the San Francisco 49ers, Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins, and Dallas Cowboys,

For the second time in as many years, the Rams have exceeded pre-season projections to win more games than expected. And the team did not do so with the help of now-retired All-Pro defensive lineman Aaron Donald.

The Rams have been locked in an uncanny repetitive three-year cycle. What do I mean? Well, the team has taken a cyclical pattern to compete in Super Bowls. Let's examine the pattern:

Cycle I:
2016: 4-12
2017: 11-5, 0-1 NFL Playoffs
2018: 13-3, NFC West Division title, 2-1 NFL Playoffs, Lost in Super Bowl LIII to NE Patriots 13-3

Cycle II:
2019: 9-7
2020: 10-6 1-1 NFL Playoffs
2021: 12-5, NFC West Division title, 4-0 NFL Playoffs, Won in Super Bowl LVI over Cincinnati Bengals 23-20

Cycle III:
2022: 5-12
2023: 10-7, 0-1 NFL Playoffs
2024: 10-7 NFC West Division title, ?-? NFL Playoffs

The only problem is that we have only had three analogous reasons for the success every third year. We cited the design of the NFL to retard the ongoing success of successful NFL teams, the cannibalization of the coaching staff, and the need to pay stars top dollars as the reasons for the oscillating pattern.

What we need is more data that correlates to this pattern.

Data categories that correlate to the Rams 3-year cycle

If you had to choose the KEI (key elements of information) that correlate to the LA Rams' uncanny success in Year 3 of the team's current trend of 3-year cycles, could you do it? I suppose the first part of the question requires a comprehensive search for all meaningful data generated by the Rams over the past nine years, and then scanning for specific statistics that align with the Rams' past two Super Bowl appearances. That is a pretty aggressive task.

Thankfully, Rams writing intern Wyatt Miller has done the heavy lifting for us. In his report below, Miller tracks the Rams turnover ratio and the offensive EPA (Offensive Expected Points Added). EPA Is a relatively newish statistic that attempts to measure how much an offense contributes to a possession in a game. It's calculated by subtracting the expected points before a play from the expected points after the play. Offensive EPA typically ranges from -14 to 10. To calculate EPA per play, divide the total EPA for a game by the number of plays.

So how have the Rams tracked with these two data trends? Here is Wyatt Miller's graph:

As you can see in the above graph, there is a significant uptick in both the turnover ratio and the offensive EPA per game in Year 3 of the past three three-year cycles. Now armed with this information, we can begin to build a stronger case with empirical data for the team's likelihood of earning the right to compete in Super Bowl LIX.

Will it happen again? No data can ensure the future. But there is some confidence that supports the optimism heading into the playoffs. Until the Rams either win the Super Bowl or are eliminated, that is the best we can hope for.

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