Bears blockbuster trade could help LA Rams on Day 2

The Chicago Bears were always a wild card in any 2023 NFL Draft simulator. Because the Bears were committed to their quarterback, Justin Fields, their presence as the first overall pick in the draft introduced the first variable. In most seasons, the first five draft picks typically involve multiple quarterbacks, the best and most complete passers from the bunch whose new teams believe can become the hub of an NFL Playoff offense, and ultimately an NFL Championship team.

But the Chicago Bears, already confident in their own quarterback, were not about to fit that usual and customary script. Deviation from that script would therefore pull a top prospect from another position group off the board. And that has a different effect altogether. What do I mean? Hold that thought, as we have some news to share:

The Bears had no need for a quarterback with their first overall pick. But after ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter reported on the Carolina Panthers - Chicago Bears trade, the Bears no longer have that pick:

So when the news broke that the Carolina Panthers had traded a significant package to the Chicago Bears for the first overall pick, not only did the Panthers pull the 2023 NFL Draft back to the standard script, but the teams that will select after that first pick will be more likely to act predictably.

Bears dropping makes draft run less likely

NFL teams not only stack their individual draft Big Boards with the players that they value most, but also try to read into the entire draft so that they do not inadvertently overload on an abundant positional group, and in the process fail to address the needs of thin or vacant positional groups.

If the Bears held firm at the first overall pick, they would have had the option to select almost any top prospect. The problem is that any positional group selected with the first overall pick that is not a quarterback could suddenly develop a run on that position. Runs often happen in the first round on such defensive positions as edge rusher, offensive tackles, elite cornerbacks, and perhaps even interior offensive linemen.

If the Chicago Bears had stood pat and selected from among the non-quarterback prospects, that may have triggered a run of sorts, and from that position, who knows how many offensive tackles or cornerbacks or edge rushers may have come off the board before the LA Rams had the opportunity to make their first selection with the 36th overall pick?

At the ninth overall selection, the Bears are far less likely to start a draft run on any positional groups that may be of interest to the LA Rams. In the end, the Bears trading back ensures that the Panthers, Texans, and Colts will pull off at least three of the top quarterbacks from the 2023 draft class. Some draft analysts have projected as many as five rookie quarterbacks hearing their names called in Round 1.