LA Rams draft needs, hit rates, and when should Rams pick a QB?

What happens to those positions that must wait for Day 2?

The LA Rams could benefit by upgrading virtually every position on the roster. On the other hand, upgrading is also a bit subjective. After all, if the LA Rams can feel relatively secure at landing a solid starter on Day 2 for an offensive tackle, but know that there is not a similar chance of deferring the selection of a quarterback, the Rams must attempt to find that franchise quarterback first.

The challenge for many fans is a bit of tunnel vision. We perceive the needs of the Rams roster without any repurcussions of getting it wrong. If we believe that the Rams must draft an offensive tackle first, there are no penalties for that selection if it proves to be less effective for the Rams overall roster.

All is not lost if the LA Rams do not adhere to your plans for that selection on Day 1. As the Rams have proven with so many competent and productive Rams rookie players chosen in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Rams have the ability to find and select Week 1 starters as late as Round 5 on draft day.

How does deferring impact key positions?

Deferring QB selection could be foolish for Rams

Arrowhead Pride Western Chief covered the topic of deferring positions from Round 1 to Round 2 in terms of starting at the position. He focused on the following positions: QB, RB, WR, TE, OL, DL, LB, and DB. His timeframe covered the 2005 until 2014 drafts. Over the selected timeframe, his distribution of positions is as follows: 122 QBs, 207 RBs, 421 OL, 143 TEs, 317 WRs, 442 DL, 303 LBs, and 510 DBs. While this is a bit simplistic as well, here is what he found:

For offensive linemen, tight ends, linebackers, wide receivers, and even defensive backs, the drop from Round 1 to Round 2 is minimal. For quarterbacks, the drop out of Round 1 is a precipitous fall. The difference between Round 1 and Round 2 is greatest for QB (-36%), RB (-33%) and DL (32%).

While many argue that the Rams should draft an offensive tackle in Round 1, the success rate of offensive linemen in Round 2 is an eye-popping 70 percent. Curiously, based on the data table above, the chances of finding a starting defensive lineman actually improves in Round 4 over Rounds 2 or 3.

While some will look at the success rate in Round 1 and stop there, that does not tell the entire story. Like it or not, LA Rams starting quarterback Matthew Stafford is up in years and will need a padawan sooner rather than later. Unless the LA Rams opt to go the far more expensive route by shopping for an elite quarterback via trade or the 2024 NFL Free Agency market, the Rams' best option appears to be selecting a rookie quarterback in the 2024 NFL Draft.