Rams 2024 Offseason Primer: 5 steps before the NFL Free Agency market

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Step III: Re-sign players

The LA Rams have quite a few free agents to consider to re-sign for the 2024 NFL season. While the approach to the offseason has yet to be formulated, the LA Rams will likely have the contract extensions atop their offseason "To Do," list. The question is, which players will be re-signed, and which will be allowed to test their value in the 2024 NFL Free Agency market?

To understand these questions, and the likely actions taken by the Rams front office to address the questions, let's start by creating a data table of projected Rams 2024 free agents,

Probability Index:
0% - Won't happen - Temporary fill of injured player
25% - Unlikely to happen. Disappeared from the roster late in the season
50% - Could happen. Saw some action. Could return on a team-friendly contract.
75% - likely to happen. Either a vital depth or rotational player. But finances are a factor.
100% - Almost certain to happen. But is anything certain with the LA Rams?

Name	Posn	Type	'23 snaps	'23 APY	'24 Proj APY	Alt option?	Prob Rams ext.
Austin Trammell	WR/PR/KR	ERFA	6.3%	$870K	$915K	TBD	75%
Ronnie Rivers	RB	ERFA	8.1%	$787.5K	$915K	Zach Evans	75%
Tyler Johnson	WR	RFA	3.1%	$1.01M	$1.08M	Ben Skowronek	50%
Christian Rozeboom	ILB	RFA	44.9%	$940K	$985K	Olakunle Fatukasi	75%
Michael Hoecht	OLB	RFA	84.8%	$940K	$2.0M	Nick Hampton	75%
Jonah Williams	DE	RFA	52.7%	882.5K	$1.5M	Desjuan Jonnson	75%
Alaric Jackson	LT	RFA	84.4%	815K	$4.63M	Joe Noteboom	100%
Ernest Brown	DE	SFA	4.9%	$787.5K	$800K	TBD	0%
Kevin Dotson	RG	UFA	76.8%	$2.25M	$12.5M	Logan Bruss	50%
Carson Wentz	QB	UFA	6.1%	$1.32M	$5.0M	Stetson Bennett	50%
Carson Tinker	LS	UFA	6.5%	$1.17M	$1.21M	Alex Ward (IR)	0%
Demarcus Robinson	WR	UFA	34.5%	$1.17M	$2.0M	Xavier Smith	75%
Royce Freeman	RB	UFA	18.0%	$1.08M	$1.13M	Zach Evans	25%
Brett Maher	K	UFA	8.6%	$1.08M	$1.13M	Tanner Brown	25%
Ahkello Witherspoon	DB	UFA	93.5%	$1.08M	$7.8M	Derion Kendrick	50%
John Johnson III	DB	UFA	45.7%	$1.08M	$2.0M	Quentin Lake	50%
Duke Shelley	DB	UFA	6.7%	$1.08M	$1.2M	Tre Tomlinson	25%
Troy Reeder	ILB	UFA	16.9%	$1.08M	$1.2M	Jacob Hummel	25%
Brycen Hopkins	TE	UFA	7.6%	$987K	$1.08M	Hunter Long	25%
Larrell Murchison	DL	UFA	22.2%	$952.5K	$1.2M	Cory Durden	50%
Jordan Fuller	DB	UFA	93.4%	$866.4K	$4.0M	Russ Yeast	50%
Tremayne Anchrum Jr.	OL	UFA	4.6%	$842.6K	$1.1M	Mike McCallister	50%
Coleman Shelton	IOL	Void	97.0%	$2.4M	4.0M	Brian Allen	75%

What does that tell us? Well, if you use a standard risk assessment process, you can calculate the probability of the Rams extension outlays for 2024 by multiplying projected salaries by the probability of that extension. Of course, the projections of 2024 APY and probability are subjectively assessed, but if you want to arrive at a more comfortable number, simply change to your specific tastes and roll the dice.

From the above matrix, if the Rams concentrate on extensions alone, the team is likely committing $32 million, or nearly all of their existing salary cap space, just to entice players to return. And the matrix does not reveal who will be extended. It simply allows a relatively easy financial forecast. In essence, it the Rams have a 50/50 chance of signing two players, each with a projected $2 million salary in 2024, the odds work out as follows:

25% - neither signs
50% - one of two signs - $2 million spent
25% - both sign - $4 million spent

Let's assume that the Rams do create savings, and now have $15 million to spend on rounding out the 2024 Rams roster. Are we ready to spend money just yet? Not quite.

The LA Rams must now review where they have invested too heavily, and where they have invested to sparsely. To do that, the Rams must review their positional spending.

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