Seahawks vs. Rams best NFL prop bets for Week 11

Oct 22, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) drops
Oct 22, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) drops / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The Rams have some work to do if the team wants to get back in the playoff discussion, but thankfully the team will have Matthew Stafford back under center.

In Week 1, Stafford carved up the Seattle Seahawks secondary, and he'll look to do it again in Week 11, this time at home. I expect a big afternoon from Stafford and rookie Puka Nacua against Seattle, but the Seahawks may also do some damage against a Rams secondary that has been vulnerable all season.

Here are my three favorite player props for this NFC West showdown, you can find our betting expert Iain MacMillian's best bet for this one in his weekly column where he picks EVERY NFL game here!

Best NFL Prop Bets for Seahawks vs. Rams in Week 11

  • Matthew Stafford OVER 256.5 passing yards
  • Puka Nacua OVER 67.5 receiving yards
  • Geno Smith OVER 31.5 pass attempts

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Matthew Stafford OVER 256.5 passing yards

Stafford hit the ground running in Week 1 against Seattle, passing for 334 yards in the team's 30-13 win at Seattle without Cooper Kupp. After missing the team's game prior to the BYE week, Stafford should be at full go in this one with his fully healthy wide receiver group against a middling Seattle secondary that is 16th in EPA/Pass this season.

This number is baking in the injury to Stafford and not the matchup that suited him well in Week 1.

Puka Nacua OVER 67.5 receiving yards

Nacua's numbers have fallen off of late, but the targets are still there. The rookie out of BYU has only posted 32 and 43 yards over hte last two games, one of which was a blowout loss that Stafford got hurt in and the other being without Stafford. However, he still had seven targets in each.

Meanwhile, he cleared this number in six of the other seven games this season, including catching 10 passes for 119 yards against the Seahawks in Week 1. Yes, Kupp is back to take some of the volume away, but I actually believe the return of Kupp only helps Nacua's case as defenses need to watch both players. This number is overreacting to two off games that are more outliers than the norm.

Geno Smith OVER 31.5 passing attempts

Smith has gone over this mark in five of nine games this season, nothing that crazy, but when you dive deeper you see that most of the games he has gone under have been blowouts. Smith went under this number in the 17-point loss to the Rams , the suffocating win against the Cardinals, blowout win against the Giants and blowout loss to the Ravens.

Given that this is expected to be a competitive game between NFC rivals and the Rams check in 22nd in EPA/Pass, I believe we see the Seahawks attack through the air and Smith has a ton of volume passing the ball on Saturday.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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