The rising stock of 2 QBs bump an elite Round 1 talent to the Rams at 19

2024 CFP National Championship - Michigan v Washington, J.J. McCarthy
2024 CFP National Championship - Michigan v Washington, J.J. McCarthy / CFP/GettyImages

Will they or won't they? That is a burning question that fans are asking of the LA Rams when the matter of drafting a quarterback in Round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft comes up. It makes sense, as the last pick this team held in Round 1 was the 2016 NFL Draft, the year in which the then just arrived to Los Angeles Rams selected QB Jared Goff with the first overall pick.

So it only makes sense for fans to associate a Round 1 pick with a quarterback, even eight years later.

After the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine, there will be plenty of information and misinformation about quarterbacks in the upcoming 2024 NFL Draft. And that information, whether true or false, is an indication that NFL teams are entering the home stretch. The days until the actual draft are filled with various ways for players and their agents try to jockey for a higher spot on NFL teams' draft boards. For good reason too, as the higher a player is selected, the richer that player (and therefore that player's agent) becomes.

So how do we view the quarterback prospects in the 2024 draft class? Well, believe it or not, we had already ranked the Top-10 quarterbacks (in our view) from this class. But while the ranking still holds, the original projections of when those quarterbacks may come off the board may be too conservative.

The challenges of ranking quarterbacks are real

Quarterbacks are one of the most difficult positions to accurately project, simply because the success rate of hitting on a quarterback is very random. Bad teams draft great quarterback prospects. But unless that team can act quickly enough to build protection, offensive weapons, and a stoudt defense, that may all go for naught. Even when everything is ideally suited, the quarterback may need time to develop, or simply be the wrong fit for that offensive system.

Just look at the job that Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy did with the San Francisco 49ers offense. Purdy won the job from 2021 third overall selection, North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance. So there is a bit of fit, team strength, and other miscellaneous variables that factor in to a quarterback's success in the NFL.

2 new QBs among Top-5 rookie prospects?

Because there is not true means to reach a consensus of which order to set quarterback prospects, their ranking continues to be a work-in-process long after the draft. Interviews, pro days, and team meetings all hold particularly high weight in a team's assessment of quarterbacks. But even now, the pecking order may be changing ever so slightly.

LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels is getting a lot of unconditional support from NFL insiders and analysts. Perhaps the biggest supporter right now for Daniels is ESPN analyst Louis Riddick, who compares Daniels to top prospect USC QB Caleb Williams. He view both as 1A and 1B on his draft board.

If that holds true, then the 2024 NFL Draft could result in three quarterbacks taken with the Top-3 picks. Did I say three? I meant to say that four quarterbacks could be selected in the Top-5 picks. Why? Ian Rapoport gives the answer:

If Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy is among a Top-5 pick in the NFL Draft, then we have some math to do:

Draft math is fun, and can lead to truly appreciating the rookie class

If the Rams are picking (and sticking) at 19. let's run down prospects who are projected to come off the board before the Rams step up to the podium:

  • Quarterbacks - 4
  • Wide Receivers - 3
  • Offensive tackles - 3
  • Tight ends - 1
  • Edge rushers - 3
  • Defensive backs - 4
  • Defensive linemen - 2

That accounts for 20 players, and it does not include players like QB Michael Penix, QB Bo Nix, OT Troy Fatanu, OT Amarius Mims, C Jackson Powers-Johnson, DB Terrion Arnold, WR Brian Thomas Jr., or Edge rusher Chop Robinson.

For every player shown to be after the Rams pick at 19, one of the players projected off the board when the Rams select falls to them.

It's the math of the draft that makes the Rams Round 1 pick so incredibly valuable and important this year. If the Rams stay put, some surprisingly talented players will fall to them. That is when the fans will really become ecstatic with the rookie class of 2024.