Who are the LA Rams Top 10 FAs who could land comp picks?

If you are waking up to a hot cup of coffee and trying to get a handle on just how crazy the 2023 NFL Free Agency Market may become, I am sitting here at 2:00 am with a cup of hot coffee wondering the same thing. Of course, my focus and attention will be on events that play out with the current LA Rams roster or with former LA Rams players. But I don't think that the two groups will intersect as much as some believe.

Per Spotrac.com, the LA Rams will have 26 players hit free agency this year, That has increased due to IOL Coleman Shelton opting out of the second year of his two-year contract. But of the 26 players who will likely test their value in the 2023 NFL Free Agency market, who is likely to land a contract that is lucrative enough to generate awarded compensatory picks for the LA Rams 2024 NFL Draft? Let's take a look:

What we've done is examined where the cutoffs of annual compensation for various awarded compensatory picks have fallen in the past. Keep in mind that this is NOT the method used by the NFL algorithms, but for estimating purposes in real time, you can use this guide to get a 'feel' as to how contract terms may benefit the LA Rams 2024 NFL Draft picture.

To further facilitate your ease at converting player contracts into projected comp picks, we've ranked our best guesstimate as to what each LA Rams free agent may sign for, and where that contract may fall in terms of LA Rams compensatory draft picks.

Rams projected awarded comp picks for 2024 NFL Draft: 4
Outstanding contracts without details: 1
Last updated: March 28, 2023 @ 10:00 am PT

Round 3 comp picks: Contract value $16 million APY and upwards

While wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. is likely to sign to a contract in this range, he was not on the LA Rams 2022 NFL roster and will therefore not qualify for consideration for an awarded compensatory pick.

Round 4 comp picks: Contract value $10.1 - 15.95 million APY

DB Taylor Rapp projects to sign a contract from $9.5 - 11.0 million APY

UPDATED Round 5 comp picks: Contract value $8.0 - 10.0 million APY

DL A'Shawn Robinson projects to sign a contract from $8 -9.2 million per year.

Round 6 comp picks: Contract value $4.1 - 7.99 million APY - UPDATED

1. PK Matt Gay has agreed to terms with the Indianapolis Colts at 4 years $22.5 Million
2. QB Baker Mayfield lands a 1-year $4.0 million with Tampa Bay Buccaneers (plus $4.5 million in incentives for a total of $8.5 million)

Round 7 comp picks: Contract value $2.1 - 4.0 million APY

1. DB Troy Hill projects to sign a contract from $2.5 - 4.0 million APY
2. DB Nick Scott has now signed with the Cincinnati Bengals 3 years at $12 million
3. IOL Oday Aboushi projects to sign a contract from $2.0 - 3.2 million APY
4. IOL Coleman Shelton has re-signed with the team for 2 years at $4.72 million.
5. NT Greg Gaines has agreed to a 1-year $3.5 million deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

No Comp Picks: Contract value under $2 million

1. LS Matt Orzech signs with the Packers, on a 3-year deal we estimated at $1.1 - $1.5 million APY. In fact, it comes in at $1.2 million APY.
2. P Riley Dixon signed w Denver Broncos. We estimated below $2 m APY, and per Over The Cap.com, it comes in at $1.75 million APY
3. KR/PR Brandon Powell signs with the Minnesota Vikings on a 1-year deal we estimate from $1.3-1.6 million APY
4. DB David Long will sign with the LV Raiders on a contract valued at $1.475 million
5. OL David Edwards has agreed to sign with the Buffalo Bills, for $1.7 million

From what we now know, the best projection for the LA Rams awarded comp picks for the 2024 NFL Draft appears to be in the ballpark of:

Round 4 - TBD
Round 5 - TBD
Round 6 - Two picks (Gay to Colts, Mayfield to Bucs)
Round 7 - Two picks (Scott to Bengals, Gaines to Bucs)
One contracts are yet to be determined (Taylor Rapp)

Of course, if the Rams sign free agents from other teams, then those contracts would eliminate the Rams' losses on a one-for-one basis. Likewise, if the Rams extend any player, that player does not trigger the algorithm for awarded comp picks. The LA Rams are unlikely to cross that threshold at this rate.

The 2023 NFL Free Agency market is going to be bonkers. It's now 3:00 am PT on March 13, 2023, and we have just six hours until agents and GMs begin to announce agreements reached for new contracts. It will start with a loud roar, but subside over the course of a few days to a far more manageable pace. Remember, just the entire Rams roster, not just one player addition or lost.

Otherwise, you'll miss out on just how entertaining this period is for LA Rams fans.