Is Case Keenum the Next Kirk Cousins?

The “Case” for Keenum Next Year

If Case Keenum has proven anything, he’s proven that he can win games in the NFL. He has a 5-9 record as a starter, but eight of those losses were with a struggling Houston Texans team and one of them was with the lowly mid-season Rams. His stats aren’t flashy, but he’s been an Alex Smith-type game manager with a 61.4% completion percentage for 597 yards and 4 touchdowns to only 1 interception.

Even though Keenum is more willing to throw the ball downfield than Alex Smith, he is able to take care of the ball and manage the game like Alex Smith in terms of his TD-to-INT ratio (Case does have a fumbling problem that has been evident ever since his first NFL season). In fifteen games this season, Smith has a seemingly unimpressive statline with a 65.7% completion percentage for 3,330 yards and 18 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. However, his 65.7% completion rate and lack of interceptions allows his team to move down the field with ease and give his offense a chance to score. That would explain the Chief’s impressive nine-game winning streak since Week 7 of the regular season.

Case Keenum’s sample size is much smaller than Alex Smith’s, but he’s been able to do the same thing with the Rams late in the season. With such a small sample size, I’m going to describe (Due to the inability to provide pictures) a couple plays in the last three weeks to show Keenum’s competence as the St. Louis Rams’ starting quarterback so far.

Case Keenum 60-yard TOUCHDOWN to Kenny Britt against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

With Tre Mason as the single back, two tight ends on the right side of the line, and two receivers split wide on opposite sides, Case Keenum takes a basic five-step drop. After noticing the strong safety feigning a blitz and dropping into intermediate coverage, the defense becomes a Cover One with the corners manned up on the Kenny Britt and Tavon Austin and one deep safety.

The deep safety initially turns his hips to fill in the gap left by his strong safety, which leaves him little time when Keenum rips one to a streaking Kenny Britt on the left side of the field. The ball is then delivered perfectly from the Rams’ 35-yard line to the Buccaneers’ 26-yard line right over the cornerback into Kenny Britt’s hands, allowing him to walk in for an easy score on a second down. This is a throw that every quarterback has to make, but the ability to hit the receiver in stride for a touchdown is invaluable.

Case Keenum 17-yard completion to Jared Cook against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This completion by Case Keenum is much more impressive than his 60-yard touchdown earlier in the game. This time, the offense is in a four-receiver, shotgun set with a single back to the right side of Keenum for a third down play, something the Rams obviously struggle with. He has Tavon Austin wide left with Kenny Britt in the left slot and Jared Cook wide right with Wes Welker in the right slot. He also has Benny Cunningham just in case the play breaks down.

Keenum points out a possible outside linebacker blitz on the right side to his linemen before the ball is even snapped, and also notices the mike linebacker showing blitz in the A gap between Garrett Reynolds and Tim Barnes. Jared Cook then motions to the inside of Wes Welker, proceeded by a brief motion of Welker to stack himself behind Cook. Both blitzing linebackers drop into coverage once the play begins.

Welker runs a simple hitch near the first down marker while Cook runs a deeper 10-yard corner route to the outside. Tampa Bay is now in their base Cover 2 set, in which the corners and linebackers essentially set up a wall of intermediate coverage to prevent a first down. Wes Welker was well covered, and a throw to him probably would’ve led to an easy pick-6. Benny Cunningham was open underneath, but would’ve been tackled short of the first down. Instead, Keenum smartly takes a shot at Jared Cook near the out-of-bounds, where only a perfect throw would be completed.

Here, Keenum has to throw the ball over the right cornerback while dropping it before the deep safety can get to it. Keenum gets excellent touch on his throw while under pressure, getting it over the jumping cornerback right into the hands of a sliding Jared Cook who remains in-bounds. Because of this play, the Rams were able to stay alive in the drive and eventually hand it off to Todd Gurley for a crucial 3-yard touchdown to extend the lead in the second quarter.

Case Keenum 28-yard TOUCHDOWN to Kenny Britt against the Seattle Seahawks

Even though running back Todd Gurley and center Tim Barnes were the heroes of the game, Case Keenum’s leadership and ability to take of the ball were crucial in the Rams’ upset of the Seattle Seahawks in CenturyLink. This play occurred on a first down in Seahawks territory during the second quarter. Since it was still only a two-possession game, the Rams needed another touchdown to quiet the otherwise deafening “12^th man” down.

On this play, the Rams offense uses a very unique college-like formation with two receivers split out wide, a single back with the quarterback under center, a tight end playing off the left side of the line, and a weak-side fullback. Lance Kendricks, the tight end is motioned across the line and back before the play begins, allowing Keenum to notice the Seahawks’ man coverage.

Case Keenum takes a five-step drop against a Cover One man defense with Earl Thomas as the single deep safety. There are three defensive backs covering three receivers going out for routes with Seahawks linebackers dropping into intermediate coverage since the Rams’ fullback and running back are initially in pass protection. With defensive tackle Ahtyba Rubin pressuring Keenum in the strong-side A gap between Tim Barnes and Cody Wichmann, Earl Thomas provides coverage to weak-side receivers Tavon Austin and Lance Kendricks. However, Case Keenum realizes this lack of double coverage on the right side of the field and decides to take a chance with Kenny Britt against one of the best corners in the game, Richard Sherman.

Because of the man coverage, Richard Sherman is left alone with Kenny Britt, giving Keenum a one-on-one situation. Sherman briefly presses Britt, but Britt is unaffected and continues to accelerate past his coverage with an outside release. Keenum decides to let it fly when his receiver has sprinted about eight yards after the press coverage, and is able to drop a dime in the endzone to a diving Kenny Britt over a pursuing Richard Sherman.

Every point counts in football, and this touchdown help demoralize an otherwise relentless Seahawks team going into the half. Obviously, the Rams ended up winning this matchup, and Case Keenum’s intelligent and safe play was crucial to exploit a fantastic defense in Seattle.

Next: Case Keenum vs. Kirk Cousins