LA Rams prepare for the 2020 NFL Draft, so draft day trades will surely occur. So its time to relook at the NFL Draft trade value chart
The LA Rams first mock for the 2020 NFL Draft is up and ready for your review. The first mock draft is actually two mock drafts in one: one drafting positions of need, another drafting best player available. Of course, neither mock draft is entirely accurate, as the track record of general manager Les Snead is to wheel and deal throughout the NFL Draft, and the 2020 NFL Draft will likely be no exception.
At the conclusion of the 2019 NFL Draft, the LA Rams had traded on six separate occasions. So that begs the question, how do teams negotiate to hold trade talks? Without a consensus, the effort would be similar to trying to buy foreign made goods with US currency.
Without an agreed upon conversion factor, or exchange rate, such transactions would be nearly impossible. Right now, the conversion rate of the US dollar to Canadian dollar is 1.31. That means $1 US = $1.31 Canadian. The same logic applies to exchanging NFL draft picks.
NFL Draft value trade chart
If NFL draft picks are a team’s “currency”, there must be a consensus among all 32 NFL teams as to the relative value each pick holds in relation to the other. So the trick is to work from an NFL Draft value trade chart that mimics the values used on draft day.
The concept of “how high can they go”in terms of trading up in the 2020 NFL Draft is based upon the relative value of the LA Rams six projected picks in the 2020 NFL Draft. Those picks are currently projected at 52, 84, 123, 137, 199, and 234. By adopting the NFL Draft trade value, we can now do mathematical calculations to estimate how high the Rams can trade in the 2020 NFL Draft.
To begin, we must convert the relative values of the Rams projected picks, add the values, and then convert the new value in reverse to estimate where that pick might fall. Let’s begin:
(Pick,Value, Aggregate value)
(Pick 52,380 , 380)
(Pick 84,170 , 550)
(Pick 123, 49 , 599)
(Pick 137, 37 , 636)
(Pick 199, 11.4, 647.4)
(Pick 234, 1, 648.4)
Converting back to pick –> Pick 29 (relative value falls between 28th and 29 picks)
I was asked to plan a future NFL Mock Draft focused upon day two picks only. In short, the comment suggested trading up from Day three picks to focus upon rounds two and three. But there is the rub.
Round two pick values range from 580 (pick 33) to 270 (pick 64), while round three picks range from 265 (pick 65) to 92 (Comp pick at 102). So the sum of the last four picks of the Rams (49+37+11.4+1) are barely enough to draft back into late round three with a value of 98.4, or Draft pick 101 (round 3, pick 37). So the best possible Day two draft scenario is for the Rams to draft at 52, 84, and 101.
Trading during the NFL Draft typically favors the team initiating the trade. Whether a team wishes to trade up, or a team wishes to trade back. The trade partner must be persuaded to do so, which means they collect a value premium to do so. No doubt LA Rams will trade throughout the 2020 NFL Draft. But don’t make plans on day three. The Rams will likely be selecting in rounds four through seven in 2020.