Do the LA Rams want Lions QB Matthew Stafford?

The LA Rams want quarterback competition in 2021. But does that mean competition regardless of who is under center? Or is that statement specifically targeted at current starting quarterback Jared Goff. Does any of this even matter? Well, in a way, it does. A number of NFL teams have made changes in the front office, have made changes at the head coaching position. But this year, it appears as though two very good but ringless quarterbacks are on the trading block.

Of course, you surely have heard the rumors of the Houston Texans discussing trading quarterback Deshaun Watson. And how ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith publicly stated on the air that the LA Rams wanted in on Watson, and would be willing to trade Jared Goff and picks to do so.  Of course, it doesn’t help that the relationship between head coach Sean McVay and quarterback Jared Goff has never been at a lower point.  All the while that Goff’s future with the Rams is cooling, the rumors over an imminent Texans’ trade is heating up.

But lo and behold, here is another start quarterback suddenly on the trading block. Apparently, the trade packages publicly discussed over Watson are more than enough to intrigue the Detroit Lions as well. So what is all this about Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford on the trade block, and would that intrigue the LA Rams enough to inquire?

It’s a familiar sight and a pattern that has been repeated in the NFL and other professional sports. A good player or players on a bad team go their separate ways, with the good player joining a good team, in hopes of winning championships. In return, the bad team is given a ransom of draft picks or promising young players to jump-start a rebuilding process. So would the Rams be interested? Yes. Will they make a competitive offer? That depends.

Goff is part of any package

Quarterback Jared Goff must be part of the trade package for any starting quarterback Why? The Rams have invested far too much to carry his salary and another quarterback’s salary. So why would any team accept Goff’s tremendous salary package? Well, to get right to the point, the Rams are stuck with Goff’s guaranteed money regardless. For a team like the Texans or the Lions, Goff is a very reasonably priced quarterback. Here are his salary cap hits for his new team:

Year              Salary                         Roster Bonus         Total Salary Cap (new team)
2021            $25,650,000             $  2,500,000            $28,150,000
2022            $10,650,000             $15,500,000           $26,150,000
2023            $20,650,000             $  5,000,000            $25,650,000
2024            $21,650,064             $  5,000,000            $26,650,064

Right now, the Detroit Lions (if they keep Stafford) are looking at the following transferrable cap figures

Year            Salary                      Roster Bonus     Workout Bonus   Total Salary Cap (new team)
2021          $ 9,500,000            $ 10,000,000        $500,000               $20,000,000
2022          $12,500,000           $ 10,000,000        $500,000               $23,000,000

Goff is 26, Stafford is 32 years old.  If the Rams and Lions make a trade of this nature, the Rams would be forced to recognized $22,000,000 of dead cap money in 2021, and the Lions would be forced to recognize $19,000,000 of dead cap money in 2021.  So despite the public debates and discussions, the money will not be the reason this deal does not happen if both teams wish it.

Stafford is an older version of Goff

Folks, this is all about perception. If you see Matthew Stafford as an elite quarterback who simply needs the ‘right team’, you will spend a lot to make this deal happen. If you see Jared Goff as the more accomplished of the two quarterbacks, then you may even expect the Lions to trade Stafford plus a pick to acquire the much younger Goff.

Stafford has more passing yards and touchdowns because he’s played in the NFL more than twice as long as Goff. So his remaining career is much much shorter. That’s just the fact.  Let’s do some rote comparisons:

QB              Annual Yards      Comp %       Int %    Yard/Att  Yards/Com   Yards / Game
Stafford      3,758                     62.6            2.3                7.2        11.6                        273.4
Goff              3,833                     63.4            2.3                7.5        11.8                        263.3

Realistically, Goff is as fundamentally sound as Stafford. And trading for Stafford accelerates the need to shop for a quarterback once more. Stafford is a pocket passer, and despite the sales pitch, he did miss eight games in 2019. In his sixth season, Stafford threw 22 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. By the end of his fifth NFL season, Stafford threw for 17,457 yards, 109 touchdowns, and 73 interceptions. He also rushed for 9 touchdowns and fumbled 29 times.
In five seasons, Goff threw for 18,171 yards, 107 touchdowns, and 55 interceptions. He’s rushed for 10 touchdowns and fumbled 42 times. Folks, those numbers are virtually identical.

What’s the exchange of value?

Which team benefits more by shaving six years off the age of their starting quarterback? There is a group of vocal Rams fans who want anyone but Goff under center right now. And that faction would be happier now to do anything with the risk of immense grief and regret later. So like it or not, that perception that ‘Goff sucks’ cannot be used to give fair value to any exchange between the Rams and the Lions.

The Rams get some salary-cap relief for trading Goff. The Lions would get a much younger but NFL ready quarterback who has three of five seasons of NFL Playoff experience. Sorry, but it doesn’t get much better than that in terms of trade value. So let’s put this all together.

In this exchange, the Rams and Lions settle the differences by swapping second-round picks.  The Rams kick in their last third-round pick to the lions to compensate for the salary differential, and the Lions kick in a fifth-round pick for the advanced age of Stafford. Of course, there can be conditions attached, and conditional picks added to the exchange.

I won’t lie. I do not see enough compelling reasons for the Rams to get older at a quarterback position, when they may end up there organically by being patient with the Rams current quarterback. Had the Lions been as hasty in cutting ties with Stafford, they would not have a quarterback worth dealing for now.

Many see Goff as the only reason that the Rams are not winning a Super Bowl.  That’s not true. Goff has indeed played inconsistently, but when he is not at his best the Rams attempt even more emphasis on the fact that he is having a bad game. Perhaps it is best for the Rams and Goff to part ways after all. Goff may fare better in Detriot after all.

And who knows? Perhaps Matthew Stafford can lead the LA Rams to the playoffs, something Jared Goff had done three of four times under head coach Sean McVay. But it will be different. Goff won’t get the blame if the Rams exit early without winning a Super Bowl.