So what if LA Rams deal siphons off more first-round picks?

Counting cards

Rookies who are selected in the first round are certainly the most highly paid rookies who arrive at the NFL. And due to their selection in the first round, there is a bias to give them a higher priority on the depth chart. Day one rookies are paid more. Day one rookies are defaulted as a starter for the upcoming NFL season, despite being new to the NFL.

Swinging and missing with the first-round draft picks carry the most risk to the careers of NFL general managers and head coaches. Need an example? The Philadelphia Eagles struggled to get quarterback Carson Wentz back on track in 2020. The result? Head Coach Doug Pederson was fired. A first-round quarterback struggles, the head coach fired when he struggles.

Why even bother? Why not grab a proven player, and let some other team spin the wheel?  In the words of the emo running in social media about LA Rams GM Les Snead: ‘F*** them picks!’

Wait, what?

That’s right. The LA Rams play the odds, and that includes bailing on first-round draft picks. Why?  A 2008 report from Bleacher Reports’ Ari Horing and a 2020 report from Riot Report’s Vincent Richardson arrived at the same conclusion independently. More than 50 percent of the first-round selections in the NFL end up as busts.