Failed Rams contract (re) negotiations with Stafford hold dire consequences

All's well that ends well when it comes to the Los Angeles Rams and their future with starting quarterback Matthew Stafford. Or does it? The Klaxon has been silenced in terms of NFL rumors that suggest that the team may not be able to re-work Stafford's contract to persuade him to return to play in 2025.

ESPN Insiders have weighed in with their prophetic off-season proclamations, leading Rams fans away from the turmoil of NFL rumors that suggest that the Rams and Matthew Stafford will 'likely' have a future together. Well, the Rams have Stafford under contract under contract through 2026, so that is not exactly going out on a limb to guesstimate that Stafford will be back. LA Rams HC Sean McVay loves Matthew Stafford in his offense, so the team is motivated to make things right.

As long as it's financially feasible.

How can the LA Rams truly set an objective and acceptable fair market value for Matthew Stafford's services in 2025 and 2026? The team has already slammed the door over Cooper Kupp returning to the team in 2025 at any price. With that news, only foolish fans do not see how Kupp's release or trade might impact his teammate and close friend, Matthew Stafford. How long can the Rams count on Stafford without Kupp on the team?

Okay. Let's sum it up. It may seem to you that I've just sewn seeds of concerns willy-nilly across the topic of extending Matthew Stafford, even though he is already under contract through 2026. So the negotiations that must happen should not be necessary. Stafford is a Rams by definition even before his contract is renegotiated.

Why is a reworked contract necessary?

The challenge between the LA Rams and Matthew Stafford current contract terms is primarily about guaranteed money. That is, compensation that Matthew Stafford receives no matter what. The matter was a point of contention in 2024, as Stafford was displeased with his contract last season. While renegotiation of the entire contract proved to be too much to tackle last season, the Rams and Stafford did agree to deplete guaranteed monies due him in 2025 and 2026, and expedite them into 2024.

It satisfied Stafford in 2024, but made the disparity over guaranteed money even greater in 2025 and 2025.

Per Over the Cap.com, the rework of Stafford's contract in 2024 involved:

"Matt Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams agreed to a revised contract on July 31, 2024. The total value remains the same, the revised agreement pushed $5 million forward from 2025 and lowered the cap charge for 2024 by $3.33 million. Stafford received $40 million fully guaranteed at signing including a $23.5 million salary in 2024 and a $4.0 million roster bonus in 2025."

Over the Cap.com

That is the starting point of contract re-negotiations between Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams. The harsh reality is that as much as Stafford and the Rams want to be in business together, the truth of the matter is that it's not a slam dunk.

Money matters. Matthew Stafford has a Super Bowl ring, courtesy of the LA Rams and his own performance in 2021. So now, the reason to come back is for a second ring and financial security. And right now, financial security is taking center stage:

So what happens if the two sides fail to accomplish a mutually agreeable new contract? The Rams front office has a mantra of wanting to roster players who want to play for the Rams. If Matthew Stafford is unable to exact satisfactory terms in a newly written contract, his only recourse is to refuse to sign and sit out.

That simply won't work for the team. Much like the dispute with former running back Cam Akers, the team will likely allow Stafford and his agent to explore a trade. But depending on when that may happen, the team could be in a wide world of hurt at the quarterback position. Worst of all, Stafford always has the retirement option, which is a doomsday option for both the player and team.

Right now, the only other quarterback contracted by the team is third-year quarterback Stetson Bennett. That places a lot of unnecessary pressure on both the team and the player to get it right. But what is the right answer for a 37-year-old quarterback likely in the final two seasons of his NFL career? That is up to the LA Rams and Matthew Stafford to decide.

But here's the challenge. Any free salary cap dollars directed to QB Matthew Stafford cannot be spent elsewhere. So when it comes to a winning team, paying Stafford weakens the overall roster potential. Yes, Stafford must have his need for financial security met in 2025 and 2026, and that makes complete sense. But the Rams can only spend dollars once. If Stafford gets more money, that simply means fewer dollars to spend elsewhere.

The Rams offense was not very good in 2024. Despite spending more than any other team in the NFL, the Rams finished 20th in terms of points scored. Was that the fault of the offensive line? The Rams clocked in with the sixth-fewest number of quarterback sacks allowed in 2024. So money does not always correlate to offensive production.

The Rams have to figure out a way to tighten the purse strings in 2025, while still improving the number of points scored per game. Unfortunately, that effort has to start somewhere.

As always, thanks for reading.

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