Matthew Stafford will return for 2025, but it is not a slam dunk just yet

When the LA Rams lost in the Divisional Round of the 2025 NFL Playoffs, the team instantly took stock of who would be back for next season. But two of the core offensive veteran players, QB Matthew Stafford and WR Cooper Kupp, were not among them. It's not as though their contracts had expired. They didn't. It's not as though the team did not want them back. It did.

It was a matter of certainty from the player's interest in returning for another season of NFL football. And then, it was a matter of the right financial terms for the 2025 NFL season.

Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp was the first to publicly announce his intent to return to play in 2025. For Stafford, that announcement was slower to arrive. He suffered cracked ribs in Week 15 against the San Francisco 49ers, yet continued to start for the team in Weeks 16 and 17, and then again for two NFL playoff games.

So it made sense for the 37-year-old veteran to weigh out whether he wanted to subject himself to the pain that he might have to endure once more. Ultimately, Stafford wants to play next season. But as NFL Insider Ian Rapoport shares in his video feature below, the money has to make sense for both the player and the team:

Is New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers contract a viable template? If so, then the Rams could rework Stafford's contract to guarantee up to $25 million now, and push the remainder into future void years. As of right now, Stafford's remaining two contract years only guarantee dollars with roster bonuses. It's unlikely that Stafford will put himself through the rigors of training camp with not guaranteed dollars in his ledger.

But what is the fair market value of a seasoned yet fading NFL veteran quarterback? If you throw out 2021 as the outlier, you find that Stafford averages 13 games per season, 3300 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, and nine interceptions per season. He has four game winning drives and four fourth-quarter comebacks over the past three seasons.

But once he gets to the playoffs, he is still a master at the helm of this offense.

So it behooves the Rams front office to overpay, rather than to nickel-and-dime Stafford on what will certainly be a difficult contract renegotiation. The Rams and Stafford will likely stick to the $49.7 million overall value for 2025, but place up to $25 million into a signing bonus that will lower his salary cap hit by as much as $16 million if the team adds a void year in 2027.

Of course, it's easy for me to sample several NFL quarterback contracts and apply the best financial impact to a tentative reworked Stafford contract. Stafford is planning to return, and the Rams must walk the tightrope of keeping Stafford financially satisfied while keeping enough in reserve for the remainder of the quarterback room.

I expect the team will get a contract negotiated rather quickly. Hopefully, the new deal will allow enough resources to upgrade the Rams roster on the offensive side of the football.

As always, thanks for reading.

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