Myles Garrett's total cost says Rams lost the trade (here's why they didn't)

Draft pick values have historically been hard to quantify when they are exchanged for players. That's why there is so much debate and discussion when a player is traded for a package that includes draft assets.

Evaluating complex blockbusters like the Myles Garrett trade requires considering multiple factors: the value of the players being exchanged, their salaries, their years of contract control. The picks themselves must be assigned a value, too (more on that later). It all factors in.

The systems below, when paired together, can help illustrate the real value exchanged when the Rams sent edge rusher Jared Verse, a 2027 first-rounder, a 2028 second-rounder, and a 2029 third-rounder to the Browns for Garrett. The Rams paid a premium. And it's totally worth it.

Myles Garrett's value

Garrett is far and away the best pass rusher in the NFL right now. What is that worth? Will Anderson Jr. is currently the highest-paid edge defender at $50 million per year on his recent extension. Using that as a baseline, let's say, rather conservatively, that a team would pay Garrett $52.5 million for one year of his play.

That's what the Rams coveted with Garrett: his on-field value as the best defensive player in football. Verse is a fantastic player. Upgrading on his value would be difficult. But Garrett does just that. The contract models below estimate Verse's current annual value at about $32.5 million. Garrett represents a $20 million per year increase. That's huge, clearly, and it justifies why the Rams pursued him as relentlessly as they did.

Let's face it. Garrett won't maintain that value for the entirety of his contract. At 31 years old, decline should be expected over the course of his time in LA. For the purposes of this exercise, let's assume a 12% decrease in performance yearly from 2026 to 2028 and then accelerate that fall-off to 30% from 2028 to 2030. Here is what his on-field value, salary, and contractual surplus value look like over the life of his contract.

Based on this aging curve Garrett continues to carry contractual surplus value through 2028, which lines up with the practical guarantees of his revised contract with the Rams. In 2029, his cash owed outpaces his on field value, but he still could be considered a net positive. Alternatively, if he is still playing at this level the two sides could renegotiate his salary to match his level of play at that time.

Jared Verse's value

The centerpiece going back to Cleveland is Jared Verse. The Browns now have Verse for two years at near league minimum salaries, plus a fifth-year option. Realistically, they could have him under team control for four seasons, if the franchise tag comes into play. Verse is likely close to his peak already, earning him an improvement of just 2.5% each year over those four years.

*Cash owed for Verse for 2028 and 2029 are his estimated fifth-year option and a potential franchise tag.

This has Verse as the more valuable asset by the end of the two players' respective team control windows. So, why did the Rams kick in extra draft capital? Because present on-field value is worth more than contractual surplus value and future on-field value.

The draft picks' value

The Rams paid the requisite premium in draft capital. Here is the approximate value of each pick when factoring in a time-value discount of 10% per year and considering that none of the picks can contribute in 2026. Because these are future selections, estimating where it lands in the draft becomes important. Let's just use No. 30 for the first-round estimate, No. 62 for the second and No. 95 for the third.

*If you are interested in the methodology for the draft pick values, you can find my research here.

The total value going to the Browns is a staggering $299.2 million. That puts their surplus at just over $100 million.

Why it's worth it for the Rams

There's a decent chance that by 2028 Verse is providing more value to the Browns than Garrett is bringing to the Rams. And that doesn't account for the draft picks at all. So why would the Rams give up so much? Well, in a limited Super Bowl window, the Rams' goal is not to maximize total value. Their goal is to maximize the on-field value of their roster.

And Garrett, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, does just that. He may be the most valuable non-quarterback in the NFL. Pair him with Matthew Stafford, the defending MVP, alongside a stacked roster and you can see why giving up some future value is worth the $33.3 million in additional on-field production they should expect from Garrett over the next two seasons. In the end, a Super Bowl is easily worth the $100 million difference. And then some.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow