The Rams can't avoid this impossible barrier before negotiating new extensions

Matthew Stafford is entering the final year of his contract and set to earn $40 million in cash. He's coming off an MVP campaign at age 37. He's the highest-paid player on the Rams' roster. He's also the gating item for everything else the team wants to do this offseason.

After all, he committed to return. But in the unmentioned fine print was the requirement for the numbers to match his salary demands. There is little doubt it will happen. But ambiguity settles in on what the team can do afterwards.

MVP QB Stafford is viewed as underpaid and seeking a new deal. And until Stafford's renegotiation is finalized, none of the rest of the offseason can really start. Not Puka Nacua. Not Kobie Turner.

Not Byron Young. Not Steve Avila. Every one of those extensions sits underneath Stafford's number on the priority list, and until his deal moves, none of theirs can land. The negotiation is closer than fans realize, but until ink hits paper, the Rams' offseason is on hold.

The hierarchy that has to hold

I am sure the Rams would love to get the Puka extension locked in. The market is well-defined. He will top Jaxon Smith-Njigba to become the highest-paid receiver in NFL history. It’s not a question of if, but when. But that “when” is fully dependent on Stafford right now. From a recently published article looking at the Rams future cash considerations and potential extensions for their stars, there are significant hiccups to this strategy:

As stated:

“Functionally, there is another barrier to Nacua getting that kind of money, his quarterback. At the time of this writing, Stafford is still only earning $40 million per year. I find it hard to believe that he or the Rams will allow another player on the team to earn more than he does, even if just for a few days, weeks, or months in the offseason.

And Nacua will get more than $40 million. But his APY will have a similar effect on Stafford’s in the same way early astronomers found the movement of one planet in the night sky affected the movements of others.

This creates a practical impediment to Nacua's extension. Stafford’s renegotiation has to wrap up first."

Despite the straightforward math on Nacua, there is absolutely no way that the Rams will allow Stafford to be anything other than the highest-paid player on their team for even a second. That means Nacua’s extension can’t proceed until Stafford’s negotiations are finalized.

And the line only continues to form from there.

Kobie Turner, Byron Young, Ethan Evans, Warren McClendon Jr., and Steve Avila won’t come close to the $40 million per year Stafford is currently making, and therefore don’t directly threaten him. Theoretically, the Rams can get one or more of those deals locked up. But with each extension, they lose available cash for the others. And I’d wager the hierarchy of the 2023 draft class starts with Nacua. Then Turner. Then Young and/or the others.

Once Stafford’s deal falls into place, everything else becomes easier. Nacua's $43-44 million slots in cleanly underneath. Turner's projected $30 million slots next. Young's $28.5 million then slides in after. Avila's number lands wherever the guard market takes it. One right after the next.

That's why Stafford's renegotiation is the gating item. Not because his deal is the most expensive, even though it is. But because his deal sets the ceiling that defines every tier below him. Move the ceiling, and the room underneath has space for everyone to fit. Leave it where it is, and the rest stays jammed up.

The Rams have the cash to make this work. The 20 percent-above-cap budget I've previously laid out gives them room to extend Stafford and Nacua this offseason, and the rest most likely next year. But none of those deals get written until Stafford's signature lands first. The order isn't optional.

This should start to work itself out soon

Stafford goes first. Everything else waits. The Rams can spend the next two months talking about Nacua's market, Turner's leverage, Young's platform year, and Avila's injury history, but none of those conversations end in signatures until Stafford's deal is done. The bottleneck is structural, not financial. The cash is there. The hierarchy isn't.

The good news is that progress is occurring. The bad news is that every day Stafford spends unsigned is a day the entire 2023 draft class waits to find out their own future. The first domino is the only domino that matters right now. The rest fall in whatever order the cash allows.

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