More Two Point Conversions From the St. Louis Rams?

The NFL’s new point-after-touchdown rules for 2015 impact the game in a significant way and challenge every component of a team. Tuesday’s vote by the league’s Competition Committee changes the point-after-touchdown play in the following ways:

• A one-point kick changes the line of scrimmage — from where the ball is snapped — from the 2-yard line to the 15-yard line. A blocked kick can be returned by the defense for two points scored for the D. Previously, blocked kicks were immediately ruled dead balls.
• The two-point conversion will be snapped from the 2-yard line, as before. The defense can return takeaways for two points. Previously, turnovers were immediately ruled dead balls.

NFL games are historically close and are decided week in and week out by a couple of plays here and there.  46 percent of games in the last 20 years were decided by seven points or less and that 24 percent were decided by three points or less. That’s significant.

Peter King from SI.com illuminated the numbers by breaking it down to 6.5 misses per 1,235 PAT the old way. That’s a 99% conversion rate. At that percentage it is a no brainer to kick the extra point and settle for seven.

According to Pro Football Focus in 2013-2014 field goals kicked from 30-35 yards out, the new distance according to the rule, from the left hash the conversion rate was 91.6%, center was 97.6%, and from the right hash it was only 93.8%.

According to Pro-Football-Reference only 32% of plays ran from the two yard line resulted in a touchdown. Note: This does not however include two-point conversion plays. According to an article in Slate, NFL teams have a 47.9 percent success rate on two-point conversions.

Also, according to Advanced Football Analytics passing plays converted 43.4% of the time while run plays converted 61.7% of the time, and quarterback runs converted 74.5% of the time.

If two-pointers are a 48 percent proposition, then the expected value of going for two is 0.48 * 2 = 0.96 points. That still means that in the long run, the close-to-a-sure-thing extra point is the better percentage move.

In today’s NFL, kicking a 35 yard field goal is as much of a chip shot as a 20 yard field goal, there is basically no difference in the way that the kicker has to kick the ball. If the NFL really wanted to make a significant change they would move the PAT back to the 25-30 yard line and make it a 40-45 yard field goal. In 2014 NFL kickers only made 77% of kicks from that distance.

With the newly proposed rule will we see more two point conversions from the St. Louis Rams? They certainly are built for it. During the draft they drafted a big run blocking right tackle in Rob Havenstein as well as drafted a top running back in Todd Gurley. To say the least the Rams added beef up front as well as a guy who can muscle his way across the goal line.

However, the also have one of the strongest kickers in the NFL as well in Greg Zuerlein. Most likely we won’t more two-point conversions from the Rams or the NFL as the data above shows that the higher percentage play is to kick the PAT.

What we can be sure of is that if the Rams find themselves down by eight or 11 with the game winding down and they need to go for two, they have the pieces in place to give them a good shot.

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