When should the LA Rams trade back in the 2020 NFL Draft?

The LA Rams possess four picks on Day 2 of the 2020 NFL Draft. But from which pick should the LA Rams choose to trade back?

The LA Rams have developed a pattern of trading back, a pattern that could be repeated in the 2020 NFL Draft. If the Rams cannot land an elite prospect who can start on Day one, then landing more picks in later rounds seems like a solid alternative. But once there, they can be tempted to trade back up to “get their guy”.  So it becomes a choreographed set of moves, not unlike that of ballet or chess, to swerve and weave through the draft boards of 32 teams to emerge with the most coveted players.

But when to start trading? If the Rams fixate on trading back from 52, they may lose a talented player many thought would be selected in round one. Waiting too late, such as pick 84, may not yield enough tradeable picks to return later for a player on the Rams board. And how many players do the Rams need to add to this roster, and at which positions? Knowing that number, it is safe to presume much of the Rams goals of the 2020 NFL Draft.

The Rams had held 18 confirmed pre-draft meetings with prospects. Those meetings covered nine different positions.  So let’s presume that the Rams want to emerge with nine rookies from the Draft. How does the team convert seven picks into nine rookies?

Of course, we have the premade Draft Value Chart to help in this discussion. If you recall, we had talked about its usefulness for 32 NFL teams to agree upon a draft pick exchange rate. Similar to a currency exchange, a draft value chart allows teams to begin with a general agreement of the value of one pick relative to another.

Draft Value Chart exercise

(Pick, Value, Aggregate value)

(Pick   52,380   , 380)
(Pick   57,330  ,  710)
(Pick   84,170  ,   880)
(Pick 104, 86   ,   966)
(Pick 126, 46   ,  1012)
(Pick 199, 10.6,  1022.6)
(Pick  234,  1,      1023.6)

So now, its a matter of when to trade back. For that answer, let’s turn our attention to two more models. The first in Tankathon’s 2020 NFL Draft Power Rankings, which we will use to “force” trades. Next, we’ll turn to the Draft Networks online draft simulator, elect the Rams as our team, and begin to simulate the 2020 NFL Draft.

Trading back scenarios

At 52, the LA Rams have the option for multiple wide receivers (only seven chosen), multiple running backs (only two chosen), and multiple Edge rushers (only three chosen). Despite the Rams having quality players available, the team needs more picks and gets a call from the Las Vegas Raiders who desperately want to draft Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor. Since they called the Rams, they’ll be offering more value than the 380 for pick 52. The Raiders have picks at 80, 81, and 159 (DV 401.6) they are willing to exchange for the Rams picks at 52 and 199 (DV 390.6). The Rams agree.

The Raiders select RB Taylor (a first-round running back on their board) and the Rams converted two picks into three, now holding eight picks. Now the Rams are at 57, and they have lost the opportunity to select a quality edge rusher in Terrell Lewis. Once more, the phone rings and the Philadelphia Eagles are desperate to trade up for wide receiver Tee Higgins, who is still on the board at 57.  The Rams expect more value for their pick at 57 (DV 330) and get it. The Philadelphia Eagles offer picks 103, 146, 168 and their 2021 second-round pick estimated as pick 56 (DV 2020 145, DV 2021 340/2 or 170)  for the Rams pick at 57 (DV 330), and the Rams accept.

The Rams sit on the fences for both second-round picks, losing opportunities to draft quality players from the perspective of fans. but in just two moves, the Rams have increased the number of 2020 picks from seven to ten and picked up a 2021 second-round pick as well.

Trade back summary

(Pick, Value, Aggregate value)

(Pick   80, 190 ,  190)
(Pick   81, 185 ,   375)
(Pick   84, 170 ,   545)
(Pick 103,   88 ,    633)
(Pick 104,   86 ,    719)
(Pick 126,   46 ,    765)
(Pick 146,   33 ,     798)
(Pick 159,   26.6,   824.6)
(Pick 168,   23 ,      847.6
(Pick  234,  1,        848.6)
2021
(Pick  56, 340,    1188.6)

So how does that work in terms of trading back for the value of prospects? Well, the Rams now emerge from Day Two with five picks, have picked up a fourth-round pick, upgraded a sixth-round pick to two fifth-round picks, and have a seventh-round pick.

That is just one possible “trade back” scenario and involved talented players falling to the Rams at 52 and 57 which other teams valued very highly.  If you want to see how this scenario plays out in terms of talent, you are in luck.  I’m already halfway through that mock draft and it appears to be a solid crop of prospects. Suffice it to say that trading back does NOT hurt the LA Rams in the 2020 NFL Draft. There are quality players all over this draft.

When should the Rams trade back in this draft? As soon as the phone rings where the offer has more value than the value of the current pick., that’s when. In this draft, the Rams can find great value all over the board. Stay tuned.