4 disastrous picks LA Rams must avoid in the 2023 NFL Draft

It appears more and more likely that the 2023 NFL Draft is going to be a one-stop shopping trip for the LA Rams in their quest to restock the shelves of the Rams roster. And that could be a good thing, or it could be a bad thing, but it will most certainly be something different. Very much like the 2020 NFL Draft when the Rams draft emerged with nine rookies, and then the team followed up quickly by signing 22 undrafted rookies after the 2020 NFL Draft ended.

The prerequisite for that 2020 NFL Draft was the fact that the Rams had traded WR Brandin Cooks and released RB Todd Gurley. So despite all of the bravado of drafting for the best player available, the LA Rams quickly addressed glaring needs of their roster by selecting RB Cam Akers, and then WR Van Jefferson. While those choices have panned out to some degree, the strategy was risky.

Huh? That's right. Drafting for need is a risky business. But it's only one of the many perils that the LA Rams face in the 2023 NFL Draft. Let me explain. While the LA Rams have 11 draft picks in the 2023 NFL Draft, the team has three picks on Day 2, and the remaining 8 picks on Day 3. The real problem lies in the fact that the LA Rams make a selection with the 77th overall pick and then must cycle through 90 picks before stepping up to the podium once more. Of course, business picks up rapidly in late Round 5, but the gap is significant.

Disaster 4: Any scenario where the Rams trade up from 36

The LA Rams may or may not want to trade back, particularly with their Day 2 draft picks, but the worst nightmare is trying to trade up from the 36th overall pick to grab a player that the team has fallen in love with. That has not been the best strategy, and in the 2023 NFL Draft with so much equitable talent throughout the top 150 or so prospects, surrendering opportunities for more prospects seems like a bad idea.

Of course, there is a need to draft wisely, and the risk of missing on a draft selection is as great if the Rams choose to trade multiple picks to move up in the 2023 NFL Draft for that one selection as it is if the team opts to stay put or even to trade back and add picks. The difference is that each selection comes with a risk. Let's look at this from a simple approach, the act of flipping a coin. There are two sides to the coin, one heads side, and one tails side, So the odds of hitting heads on a coin flip are 50 percent.

Realistically, the odds of hitting just one heads side on two coin flips increase to 75 percent, because there can be two tails, one tail-one head, or two heads. So the more picks the Rams are able to make, the odds of 'hitting' on that pick do not change, but the odds of hitting on one pick improve.

Of course, if a rookie prospect who is projected to hear his name called early in the 2023 NFL Draft falls into Round 2, there will be plenty of temptation to trade up and grab him. But at what cost? Unlike other NFL teams with 60+ players on their roster, looking to upgrade their active 53-man roster, the LA Rams are at 44 players, and must fill out the top to bottom roles on their roster, before contemplating upgrading individual positions with rookies who project to start.

The Rams roster needs numbers right now. And the risk of surrendering two or three chances at hitting on a pick for the chance to hit on one pick is just too great. That is especially true due to the Rams recent meh success with their past two rookie draft classes.