How much can Rams improve in one season?

How much can the Los Angeles Rams improve in 2016? Recent NFL history may provide some insight into what is possible after a head coaching change.

The most important piece of the Los Angeles Rams’ offense this year is not quarterback Jared Goff. It is not running back Todd Gurley. It’s not left tackle Andrew Whitworth or one of the new receiver options they added (Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, or Josh Reynolds).

It’s Sean McVay.

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McVay comes in as an offensive guru. He is the guy who took Kirk Cousins, a fourth-round pick in 2012, and turned him into a 25 touchdowns a year guy the last two years. Oddly enough, Kyle Shannahan is sometimes given some of the credit for this, as he was the offensive coordinator when Cousins was drafted. But Cousins only started four games in the two years Shannahan was his coordinator, and went 1-3 in those starts. Believe it or not, it was McVay who got the production out of Cousins.

So what are the reasonable expectations for the Rams’ offense, who was last in the league in points last year, with McVay at the helm? Is a major turnaround likely? Consider some recent history.

You may remember five years ago. It was 2012. 2011 had been a rough year for the Rams. Expectations had been high. Coming off the lockout, the Rams had a third year head coach (Steve Spagnuolo), the reigning offensive Rookie of the Year quarterback returning (Sam Bradford), a Pro Bowl running back (Steven Jackson), a new and flashy offensive coordinator (Josh McDaniels), and had signed the nastiest guard in the league (Harvey Dahl) to sure up the offensive line. Bradford got injured, McDaniels was terrible, and Jackson’s numbers were down. The Rams had the worst scoring offense in the league and the 26^th best defense (points) that resulted in a 2-14 record along with the firing of Spagnuolo.

Enter Jeff Fisher.

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Fisher was the defensive guru who was going to turn the tide. He made a lot of changes. The following year the Rams went 7-8-1 (Fisher’s best record with the team), had the 25^th ranked offense and 14^th ranked defense. They jumped 12 spots in a year. Fisher never got the Rams above 21^st in points scored, but not below 16^th in points allowed before this year.

The 2014 Atlanta Falcons were 27^th in points allowed. Defensive coach Dan Quinn was hired and in 2015 they were 14^th.

The 2013 Minnesota Vikings had the worst defense in the league. Defensive coach Mike Zimmer was hired and in 2014 they were 11^th.

The 2014 New York Jets were 24^th in Defense (under defensive coach Rex Ryan). New coach Todd Bowles was hired and in 2015 they were ninth.

The 2012 Kansas City Chiefs were last in points scored. They hired Andy Reid (and traded for quarterback Alex Smith) and in 2013 they were sixth in points scored. (Incidentally, they also went from 25^th in points allowed to fifth, making this one of the most remarkable one season turnarounds of late).

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In 2016, the Rams had the 32^nd ranked offense and gave up the 23^rd most points on defense. What is a reasonable number? Can McVay do like other “guru’s” have and hop-scotch half of the league?  If Wade Phillips gets the defense back to the top half of the league (likely), and McVay (and company) improve the offense up to 17^th (15 spots), how many games would Los Angeles win?

Is above .500 and in the playoff hunt in December out of the question? We will find out soon enough, so stay tuned Rams fans.