5 reasons LA Rams 2020 NFL Draft strategy = Quantity over quality

Reason one : Let’s chance it

For offensive linemen, the  chance of finding an offensive linemen by round are as follows
Round one –   83%
Round two –   70%
Round three – 40%
Round four –   29%
Round five –    16%
Round six –      16%
Round seven –   9%

The frequency for where offensive linemen are selected runs the opposite way: That order by round is (7th,6th,5th,4th,3rd,1st,2nd)

So it’s smarter to pick offensive linemen in early rounds, right?  Well based on this information alone, of course.  But let’s add a different factor – the value of draft picks from the draft value chart article, shall we?

From that chart, let’s focus on the Rams picks at 52 and 84.  So if the Rams pick at 52, there is a 70 percent chance of finding a starter. If they pick at 84, there is an approximate 40 percent chance of finding a starter.  The chances of finding two starters simply means calculating the product of the two chances, or 28 percent.  failing to find a single starter with either pick is the product of the inverse probability or the product of 30 percent and 60 percent, which is 18 percent.

So while selecting in round one has a better chance of finding a starter, selecting at 52 and 84 together has an unforeseen bonus of hitting on TWO starters at a probability of 28 percent. That’s not bad for an LA Rams team in need of multiple starters on the offensive line.